According to the simulations performed by Dal Zilio and his colleagues, two or three further Gorkha quakes would be needed to build up sufficient stress for an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.1 or more. In a quake of this kind, the rupture zone breaks over the entire depth range, extending up to the Earth’s surface and laterally — along the Himalayan arc — for hundreds of kilometres. This ultimately leads to a complete stress release in this segment of the fault system, which extends to some 2,000 kilometres in total.
Historical data shows that mega events of this kind have also occurred in the past. For example, the Assam earthquake in 1950 had a magnitude of 8.6, with the rupture zone breaking over a length of several hundred kilometres and across the entire depth range. In 1505, a giant earthquake struck with sufficient power to produce an approximately 800-kilometre rupture on the major Himalayan fault.
“The new model reveals that powerful earthquakes in the Himalayas have not just one form but at least two, and that their cycles partially overlap,” says Edi Kissling, Professor of Seismology and Geodynamics. Super earthquakes might occur with a periodicity of 400 to 600 years, whereas “medium-sized” quakes such as Gorkha have a recurrence time of up to a few hundred years. As the cycles overlap, the researchers expect powerful and dangerous earthquakes to occur at irregular intervals.
However, they cannot predict when another extremely large quake will next take place. “No one can predict earthquakes, not even with the new model. However, we can improve our understanding of the seismic hazard in a specific area and take appropriate precautions,” says Kissling.
The two-dimensional and high-resolution model also includes some research findings that were published after the Gorkha earthquake. To generate the simulations, the researchers used the Euler mainframe computer at ETH Zurich. “A three-dimensional model would be more accurate and would also allow us to make statements about the western and eastern fringes of the Himalayas. However, modelling the entire 2,000 kilometres of the rupture zone would require enormous computational power that not even the supercomputers at the CSCS can provide,” says Dal Zilio.
