Risk assessment and decision-making under uncertain conditions should make best use of scientific knowledge. One of the main dangers, however, is being overconfident in such knowledge. Climate change, for example, may generate catastrophic scenarios either unforeseen or only envisaged by a minority of scientists. In our research, we explore how to make optimal decisions when experts provide conflicting information. We question the role of experts in decision-making and emphasise the value of research institutions that encourage the creation of original, possibly disruptive, knowledge.
Professor of Integrative Risk Management and Economics