Several research groups, including my own, have also examined the scale of conflict and cooperation over water resources on an international and national level. Studies such as these analyse a vast number of worldwide media reports. The single most important conclusion is that social and political interactions around water resources adhere to a kind of normal distribution. Water conflicts that are fought out violently are extremely rare. No international or domestic water wars were observed in the available data dating back to the 1940s.
On the other hand, water conflicts in the form of verbal disputes are relatively common. More common, however, are interactions of a cooperative nature
1,2,4
. In other words, water scarcity more often leads to cooperation than to conflict.
What do these findings mean for the future?
The factors determining the risk of water-related conflicts have not yet been conclusively identified, though we know that the most important predictors are likely to include: political conflicts over problems that have nothing to do with water; large development gaps within and between countries; and missing or underdeveloped institutions in the water sector within and between countries
1,2,3,4
.
Even if water conflicts have so far almost never resulted in armed conflicts, could acute water shortages resulting from massive climatic changes not lead to violent disputes about water in the future? This is of course conceivable in principle, but I think it is rather unlikely. In the vast majority of cases, the costs of armed conflict will be considerably higher than those for solutions that can be reached at the negotiating table.
Instead of falling for the water war myth, it would make more sense for affected populations and their policy makers to consider research findings such as the ones referred to above to work out what is politically feasible in the short to medium term and to act accordingly. On the one hand, this means creating institutional conditions that are able to handle conflicts of interest and resolve domestic and international disputes over increasingly scarce water in an orderly and non-violent manner.
Another feasible strategy is to use water resources more efficiently. This is particularly important, since a number of studies show that local overexploitation is in most cases a far more significant cause of water scarcity than climate change
6
. UNESCO’s World Water Development Reports, for example, identify many possibilities for using water more efficiently, while access to technological innovation in poorer countries continues to play an important role
5
.
This blog post appeared also in the
Tagesanzeiger.
