For example, imposing a ban on a specific product may encourage crop-growers to turn to other, more toxic ones. Other environmental objectives could get compromised and the cost of crop protection could increase. Both the quantity and quality of food could fall while prices could rise. It is conceivable too that fruit and vegetables would increasingly be grown under netting and foil, which would change the face of our landscape.
Getting the overall picture
In order to create a basis for political and economic decision-making, we must examine and quantify all conflicts of interest
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. We don’t yet have a clear enough picture of what agriculture with fewer pesticides would look like.
For instance, we’re currently investigating how forgoing glyphosate or all herbicides could affect selected arable crops. We use bioeconomic models to depict weed pressure and control strategies, as well as the decisions taken by farmers. In this way, we simulate how farmers behave when biophysical, economic or legal conditions change.
We’ve been able to show that cultivating maize without the use of glyphosate intensifies soil cultivation, but overall reduces the use of pesticides
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, with only a slight increase in average costs for the farmer. This means, by implication, that higher prices for glyphosate could reduce its use. The alternative – more intensive soil cultivation in the event of a ban – would, however, increase energy consumption, soil erosion and CO
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emissions from agriculture.
Incentives for good plant protection practice
I’m also convinced that we need new ways to reduce the risks of using pesticides without jeopardising other services provided by the sector. The digitisation of agriculture has a decisive role to play here: autonomous robots and drones can detect and control weeds, pests or diseases and so drastically reduce or completely replace pesticides. The agriculture of tomorrow must also strengthen preventive measures in the form of biological and mechanical control strategies. Last but not least, the breeding of resistant strains can also make a significant contribution to crop protection.
In my opinion, these approaches should be encouraged. However, what are needed too are economic instruments to make agricultural production more sustainable. Instead of simply banning active substances, the environmental damage caused by pesticides should be internalised when drawing up policies: for example, a steering tax could provide an incentive to replace harmful products either with less hazardous products or non-chemical strategies
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.