Real-time tracking of a pandemic, as data accumulate over time, is an essential component of a public health response to a new outbreak. A team of statistical modellers at the Unit are working with Public Health England (PHE) to regularly ‘nowcast’ and forecast COVID-19 infections and deaths. This information feeds directly to SAGE sub-group, Scientific Pandemic Influenza sub-group on Modelling (SPI-M) and to regional PHE teams.
The work uses a transmission model, data on daily COVID-19 confirmed deaths from PHE, and published information on the risk of dying and the time from infection to death, to reconstruct the number of new COVID-19 infections over time, estimate a measure of ongoing transmission, and predict the number of new COVID-19 deaths in different regions and age groups.
In the latest findings, published today, the researchers say:
-
There are an estimated 17,000 new infections arising each day across England
-
The number of deaths each day is likely to fall to between 100–250 by mid-June
-
The R number is below 1 in all regions of England with the exception of the North West and the South West
-
In the South West, although R is around 1, the numbers of new infections occurring in the region on a daily basis is relatively low
-
There is some evidence that R has risen in all regions, probably due to increasing mobility and mixing between households and in public and workplace settings
-
This increase in R will lead to a slowdown in the decrease in new infections and deaths
-
The increases in the regional R numbers may result in the decline in the national death rate being arrested by mid-June
For further details, see
Nowcasting and Forecasting of COVID-19
.
