Governments of the world would need to triple their current efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions in order to prevent warming of more than 2 °C by 2030, the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) said in its annual “emissions gap” report.

Released on 27 November ― just a week before the latest United Nations climate summit in Katowice, Poland ― the UNEP report projects that current national policies would allow global greenhouse gas emissions to rise by around 10% by 2030, compared to 2017 levels (see ‘Top emitters’).

But emissions would need to decrease by 25% over the same period in order to maintain a likely chance of limiting warming to 2 °C. Countries would need to reduce their emissions by 55% in order to restrict warming to below 1.5 °C.

If nations don’t increase their commitments to reduce greenhouse gases by 2030 – and follow through with emissions reductions – the 2 °C and 1.5 °C targets may move out of reach, the report states.