As the world warms, severe droughts and heat extremes will lead to a shortage of beer, causing prices to shoot up. In Ireland, the price could double. In some eastern European countries, prices could increase seven-fold. Cue mass panic?

These headline-grabbing conclusions, from a study released today on how global warming will affect beer production, are almost certainly wrong – but we should still take this kind of study seriously.

The thing is, predicting the future is notoriously difficult, and no one can forecast future …